Anatomizing Leadership Dynamics in The Global South: An Analysis Of African Union Member States Amidst The Rising Geopolitical Influence Of India And China.

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Arth Agarwal
Research Intern,
Jindal Centre for the Global South,
O.P. Jindal Global University, India

In the contemporary geopolitical landscape, the revisionist efforts of India and China can hardly go unnoticed. The G20 Summit held on 9 September 2023 witnessed India’s positioning as a contender to China for leadership of the Global South. On the occasion of the European Union-India Pacific Ministerial Forum, Indian External Affairs Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar affirmed that a Multipolar world is feasible only by Multipolar Asia. ‘India will make Reformed Multilateralism and Institutions for the 21st century a priority during its Presidency with focus on decision, strong collective actions to accelerate progress on the SDGs’, said the Indian Foreign Minister during his opening remarks on the Voice of the Global South Summit. 

Africa forms an integral part of the Global South. Recent developments on the diplomatic front suggest that New Delhi is taking a keen interest in giving representation to Africa. This region has vast trade relations with India’s counterpart, China. It is relatively accurate that Chinese economic involvement can be significantly higher than that of India in Africa. However, India’s roadmap to build a close nexus with the African Union and strengthen its position as a possible leader of the Global South can be seen in some recent developments. The level of trust experienced by the Indian Geopolitical Apparatus is a concern for Chinese Interests in the African Region.

China’s Enduring Geoeconomics Influence vis-a-vis India and The Western Narrative of Neo-colonialism

Brautigam (2020, p.12) argues that the real picture of Chinese lending is far more complex and potentially developmental than it is currently portrayed. China is helping Africa in its roadmap to reduce economic dependency on raw materials. The region is experiencing fiscal diversification or economic complexity due to Chinese financing. Nkurunziza’s “chronic dependency” idea fits well with the case in point. Nkurunziza essentially argues that the dependency has arisen due to the economic model left behind by the occupying colonial powers. According to them, this model was designed to make Africa a reliable source of raw materials that would feed the needs of Western industrial economies. It can be argued that China’s contrasting approach is aimed at the development of Africa. African countries have seemed to be more receptive to the Chinese developmental approach. ‘China is a model for developing countries, and the BRI provides the rest of the world with the opportunity to share in China’s great experiences’, said the United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation Director.

Mark Langan has argued that actors of the West paint China as the sole perpetrator of ‘conditions of mal-governance and ill-being’ in Africa. The West has engaged in an implicit presentation of neocolonialism as a novel and distant practice. The former European colonial powers continue to facilitate their interests in the region. Africa has often been referred to as the region which remains underdeveloped compared to the rest of the world. In reality, Africa is bearing the aftermath of Imperialism. ‘Dependency theory’ surrounds itself with the idea that the flow of resources happens from the ‘periphery’ comprising underdeveloped states to the ‘core’ that comprises wealthy states. In this process, the ‘core’ grows at the expense of the ‘periphery’. It can be argued that the West has furthered its industrialist endeavours at the expense of Africa’s natural resources.

In comparison to India, China’s trade with Africa has grown at a significantly faster rate. The table below (fig 1) shows the rampant growth Sino-African trade has experienced (2002-2021).

Fig 1- China-Africa Trade (2002-2021),
Source: John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

According to Data released by the General Administration of Chinese Customs, trade between China and Africa reached $282 Billion in 2022, 11% more than 2021. Indo-African trade has increased by 9.26% from 2021 to 2022. It reached almost $100 billion, which is less than half when compared to the volume of Sino-African trade that has taken place. Earlier, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) gave a head start to China, which had started its diplomatic relations in 2000, and overtime gave rise to the incubation of vested Chinese interests in the African continent. At the 2018 FOCAC in Beijing, China offered Africa US$60 billion for development financing until 2021. China’s BRI focuses more on Africa than the newly launched India-Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC). Both, the BRI and IMEC encounter significant logistical challenges and geopolitical exigencies. However, it must be noted that China does not have to rely on other actors for the supply required for their infrastructural endeavours, unlike India. The Chinese hold the capacity to supply everything that can bring any project to life.

Perilous Africa and Nefarious ‘Creditor Imperialism’: An Impediment To Development?

The action of ‘Debt Trap diplomacy’ has emerged to be a global cause of concern in contemporary times. By August 2020, China, through her BRI, had invested in 52 African Countries at a bilateral level. To repay loans obtained from Chinese creditors, the resource-backed lending model is still used to finance infrastructure projects in nations like the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ghana, and Guinea. Under this model, the borrowing country commits to using future revenues from the export of its natural resources.

The vast amount of academics think that China’s debt trap diplomacy is nothing but a myth created by the Western world. Faris Al-Fadhat and Hari Prasetio (2022) argue that the debt trap has been caused by the existing structural disparity between China as an investor and the African investment recipients. Despite Chinese efforts, bridging the structural gap emerges as a huge challenge. China is well aware of its strategic intentions as China had specified that they would take the Port of Mombasa if Kenya were to default on the US$2.3 billion loan for the Standard Gauge Railway Project. Cited by the Zimbabwe Coalition of Debt and Development (2021), Milhayi argued that despite the much-needed infrastructure provided by these loans, they have severe implications for advancing unsustainable debts and the danger of losing collateral looms large. China is blamed for offering loans for projects with limited or temporary economic benefits. For example, Zambia’s national debt tripled as a percentage of national income between 2013 and 2018. Most of it was owed to China. In their investigative book Silent Army, Juan Pablo and Heriberto Araujo state that common trends in African Chinese businesses comprise hostile attitudes towards trade unions, unfair practices and poor working conditions. Michael Sata, a former leader of Zambia, was well-recognized for his opposition to Chinese labour practices. In his campaign, Sata promised to stop Zambia from turning into a ‘dumping ground for their human beings’ and criticised China’s involvement in Africa. 

India’s geopolitical acumen: Solidifying Global South Leadership aspirations

India’s diplomatic shrewdness hit several signposts over the past year. Under India’s Presidency, the African Union upgraded its status from an invited international organisation to a Permanent Member of the G20. India came through on her agenda of focusing on the Global South during the recent G20 summit. Xi Jinping’s absence from the 2023 G20 summit hints towards China’s growing isolationism, a severe concern to the international political landscape. It must be noted that it was the first time a Chinese leader had failed to attend the summit since its inception in 2008. China had not participated in the Voice of Global South Summit (VGSS) organised by India before the G20 summit either. China’s absence worked in India’s favour to set the tide towards its direction of emerging as the leader of the Global South.

During the Indian Prime Minister’s opening remarks on the occasion of the VGSS, he stressed the importance of ‘Respond, Recognize, Respect and Reform’ to ‘re-energise’ the world. The speech witnessed aspirations towards strategic rebalancing of the global order. Indian Leadership continues to call upon other member states to recognize the principle of ‘Common but Differentiated Responsibilities’. China’s relations with the West have dramatically worsened over the years. India maintains a better dynamic with the Developed world. As an aftermath of VGSS, the Indian government had announced specific initiatives to foster South-South cooperation. For example, the Global South Center of Excellence was established to research developmental approaches. Many other initiatives aimed at knowledge sharing between Global South countries were launched. The Global South Science and Technology initiative was created to share ideas in space technology and nuclear energy; the ‘Aarogya Maitri Project’ was announced to provide medical supplies to developing countries affected by natural disasters and crises. To synergize the youth of the Global South, several Global South Scholarships to pursue higher education in India and a ‘Global South Young Diplomats Forum’ were also established.

Furthermore, India is a member of the Quadrilateral Dialogue or QUAD, which comprises India, Japan, the U.S. and Australia, and it has various dialogue mechanisms with the European Union. The current policy setting makes India a better contender who would represent the goals of the Global South on an international stage. India’s geopolitical strategy is in tandem with India’s aim at the gradual development of a Multipolar World, in general and a Multipolar Asia in particular. India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ruchira Kamboj further hinted at a more holistic nexus of the Global South by reiterating that India’s engagement with the Global South is a matter of policy, culture and philosophy of the country on the occasion of India-UN for Global South. Furthermore, she added that India’s development partnerships have expanded significantly. The India-UN Development Partnership Fund at the United Nations holds a portfolio of 75 projects across 56 developing nations in six years. India holds capacity building at the core of their developmental approach, providing New Delhi with a significant edge over Beijing.

Despite China’s established geo-economic hegemony, the Indian Geopolitical Apparatus has achieved favourable conditions to further its leadership aspirations in South-South Cooperation. The leadership dynamics of the Global South are rebalancing themselves towards multipolarity, a key element of Indian foreign policy.

References

  • Al-Fadhat, F., & Prasetio, H. (2022). How China’s debt-trap diplomacy works in African countries: Evidence from Zimbabwe, Cameroon, and Djibouti. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 002190962211376. https://doi.org/10.1177/00219096221137673

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Jindal Centre for the Global South or its members.

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