Written by Udai Vir Singh
Research Intern,
Jindal Centre for the Global South,
O.P. Jindal Global University, India
Introduction
Since it gained independence from joint Anglo-Egyptian rule in 1956, the country of Sudan has faced extensive and brutal internal conflict through civil wars and unrest for the majority of its time as a sovereign nation (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024). The most recent civil war (which is ongoing as of August 2024) began in April 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and a prominent local paramilitary group called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024). The SAF and RAF, which had collaborated to orchestrate coups in 2019 (ousting president Omar al-Bashir) as well as in 2021 (ousting prime minister Abdalla Hamok), are now battling each other for control of the country’s governance and its resources (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024).
Since this civil war began, around 15,000 people are believed to have been killed and millions of other citizens have been displaced (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024). The impact of the war is being felt in neighboring countries as well, and has become a critical humanitarian crisis. Sudan is one of the most under-developed countries in the world, ranking 170 out of the 193 countries and territories listed on the UN HDI (Human Development Index) and having a relatively low development score of 0.516 (United Nations, 2022). The UN HDI incorporates three key dimensions- a long and healthy life, access to knowledge, and overall standard of living (United Nations, 2022). This article aims to highlight the specific consequences of the current crisis in Sudan, and how they are expected to impact the overall development of the country.
Consequences of the Sudanese Crisis
Social
Beginning with the social consequences, even before the current civil war, as highlighted by Atiya (2018), Sudan was suffering from rampant internal displacement (the forced movement of citizens from their original location due to external factors), and there were already 3.3 million people displaced in Sudan by the end of 2016 as a result of the previous civil wars which took place in the country (Atiya, 2018). However, Atiya (2018) explains how the most recent civil war has increased the number of citizens displaced to over 8.2 million- an almost 150% rise in the span of 8 years, making it the largest displacement crisis occurring in the world. Displacement can impact society in several ways including greater reliance on aid, increased psychological burden on children, forced separation of families, as well as compromising food security and access to essential resources and services (Atiya, 2018). These issues would require a lot of time and effort to correct and hinder the overall well-being of the population.
The civil war has also prevented efforts to improve the dismal level of education within the population where 29% of the men and 48% of the women in Sudan were illiterate in 2010 according to Okoye et al. (2010), also due to the civil war taking place at the time. With further internal destruction continuing, these statistics are unlikely to be addressed and improved upon. Additionally, Sudan’s health care system, although functional, has been prone to several illnesses spreading from the local climate, and has made even more vulnerable by damage and increased number of patients due to the damage from the ongoing civil war (Okoye et al., 2010).
Economic
Looking at the economic consequences of the crisis in Sudan, the civil war has caused the real GDP of Sudan to contract by 37.5% in 2023 (the year the war started), as a result of economic activities being significantly disrupted. Furthermore, the destruction of infrastructure which was essential for Sudan’s economic production capacity has also been heavily compromised by the war (African Development Bank Group, 2024). The considerable decline in the real GDP has also worsened by huge losses in income of the population from the lost economic prospects as well as the mass displacement of the population as described earlier, making it difficult for them to maintain stable employment (African Development Bank Group, 2024).
The fiscal deficit of Sudan also widened to 9.1% of the total GDP in 2023 which has been the result of lower volume of tax revenue collected by the government due to the impacts of the civil war (African Development Bank Group, 2024). The reduced revenue available with the government combined with excessive spending (for the war on behalf of the SAF) also caused inflation to rise to 245.3% in 2023, due to lack of consumer goods available for the population and the depreciation of the local currency (the Sudanese pound) (African Development Bank Group, 2024). While the level of poverty in Sudan was calculated to be around 66% in 2022, this figure is now likely to be higher in the backdrop of the continuous crisis and worsening overall economic performance in the country (African Development Bank Group, 2024).
The Key Barriers To Sudanese Development
One of the first key social factors affecting the overall development of Sudan in the backdrop of this war would be ensuring the overall population has long-term access to stable shelter free from the direct conflict along with access to essential resources and services (Kohnert & GIGA-Institute for African Affairs, 2023). Until this can be confirmed, Sudanese development is likely to completely halt or regress backwards. This is because the long-term objectives for Sudanese development cannot be achieved until the more paramount and urgent short-term goals (such as basic food security, maintaining law and order and overall public safety) are addressed and resolved (Kohnert & GIGA-Institute for African Affairs, 2023).
Additionally, the stark conditions for gender safety in Sudan (where violence against women has been a prominent issue) remain another key barrier to the Sudan’s overall development (United Nations Population Fund, 2024). It is especially concerning due to reports of the SAF using rape as a weapon to exert their dominance, and around 6.7 million women and girls (particularly those who are displaced and are refugees) are estimated to be vulnerable to gender-based violence in the country (United Nations Population Fund, 2024). However, in addition to this, the scale of displacement caused by the war has resulted in girls being unable to even continue their basic education, especially as they are required to care for other family members. This limits their economic wellbeing as well and makes them far more reliant and vulnerable on families they are from and have been married into. While such a large demographic remains significantly more vulnerable during its crisis, Sudan cannot develop properly.
Re-looking at Sudan’s economic situation, the civil war disrupted and further diminished an economy which had already been weakened from the impact of the previous wars that had taken place in the country (Ibrahim & MSi, 2020). By consequence, the civil war has deepened the widespread poverty which already affected the majority of the population of Sudan. Any prospect of further development in Sudan is unlikely to be realized until the poverty crisis does not cease to grow and can be slowly and steadily reversed. This would require both long-term political stability and effective governance free of rampant corruption, and minimal likelihood of further military coups which would further destabilize the economic and political climate of the country.
Conclusion
To conclude, this article has outlined the nature of the ongoing crisis in Sudan, the social and economic consequences of the civil war which are being faced by the country and its population, as well as how these consequences are forming a barrier to Sudan’s long-term development. While the factors above are all incredibly important to address if Sudan’s development could continue, it would not be effective until the root cause of the current crisis, i.e. the political instability which has cemented the way for multiple civil wars to take place, is addressed and immediately corrected. Until Sudan has a stable government (which is invulnerable to further coups) and makes the socio-economic welfare of its population its top priority, it would be unlikely for long-term development of Sudan to take place in the foreseeable future. In order for this stability to be achieved, it would be imperative for regional countries to support Sudanese civil society organisations such as NGOs which focus on specific and prominent social problems (such as women’s health and safety issues in the current political climate), as well as international aid relief from development organisations (such as the World Bank) would also provide crucial resources necessary to tackle these social developmental challenges.
Bibliography
African Development Bank Group. (2024, May). Sudan Economic Outlook. AFDB Website. Retrieved August 12, 2024, from https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/east-africa/sudan/sudan-economic-outlook
Atiya, N. (2018). Causes and Socio-economic Consequences of Internal Displacement in Sudan. International Journal of Social Sciences and Conflict Management, 3, 2. https://casirmediapublishing.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Pages-99-112-_2018-3127_.pdf
Council on Foreign Relations. (2024, July 24). Civil War in Sudan | Global Conflict Tracker. Civil War in Sudan. Retrieved August 12, 2024, from https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/power-struggle-sudan
Ibrahim, A. H., & MSi, D. M. (2020). The Major Factors behind the Economic and Financial Crisis in Sudan. Saudi Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(12), 597–601. https://doi.org/10.36348/sjef.2020.v04i12.007
Kohnert, D. & GIGA-Institute for African Affairs. (2023). On the impact of the 2023 Sudanese war on Africa and beyond[Working paper]. Hamburg. https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/bitstream/handle/document/86871/ssoar-2023-kohnert-On_the_impact_of_the.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y&lnkname=ssoar-2023-kohnert-On_the_impact_of_the.pdf
Okoye, Onyebuchi, A., & Nwanegbo, C. J. (2010). Armed Conflict and Population Displacement, A Study of Sudan Crisis. Nigeria Journal of Political Economy, 4(1 & 2), 135–147. https://www.unjpe.com/index.php/UNJPE/article/download/151/140
United Nations. (2022). Specific country data. Human Development Reports. Retrieved August 12, 2024, from https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/specific-country-data#/countries/SDN United Nations Population Fund. (2024, June 18). Sexual violence and conflict in Sudan: A war on the bodies of women and girls. Retrieved August 12, 2024, from https://www.unfpa.org/news/sexual-violence-and-conflict-sudan-war-bodies-women-and-girls#:~:text=during%20the%20assault.-,An%20estimated%206.7%20million%20people%20are%20at%20risk%20of%20gender,women%20and%20girls%20particularly%20vulnerable
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Jindal Centre for the Global South or its members.
Global South Studies Series 