Written by Kumari Krishna
Research Intern, Jindal Centre for the Global South, O.P. Jindal Global University, India
M.A. Diplomacy, Law and Business (2024-2026), Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University
Email: 24jsia-kkrishna@jgu.edu.in
Introduction
China has recently sprung up as a force to be reckoned with in the Pacific Island states. These tiny island nations, spread across the vast Pacific Ocean, are typically regarded as “small players” in the international realm. However, as the strategic importance of this region is increasing, by virtue of their position, their votes in international organizations, and their natural wealth, these states are attracting major powers like China, the United States, and Australia. This blog uses China’s case study to examine how it is employing diplomacy, economic assistance, and security cooperation to make to increase its stronghold in the Pacific, and to explore the implications for regional stability and global geopolitics.
Background: Why the Pacific Islands Matter
The Pacific Island nations (PICs) such as Fiji, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Papua New Guinea often find themselves away from the center stage when it comes to global politics. They possess extensive exclusive economic zones (EEZs), which control strategic sea lines of communications and votes in global forums such as the United Nations. Meanwhile others possess valuable fisheries, untapped seabed minerals, and close cultural affinities with powerful countries such as Australia and New Zealand.
These countries have traditionally maintained close relations with Western powers like Australia, New Zealand, and the United States from whom they have received aid, security guarantees, and assistance in climate change negotiations. And recently, China has also become a new and power-projecting player in the region, extending its diplomatic and economic footprint at breakneck speed.
Present Status: China’s Pacific Strategy
China’s policy towards the Pacific Islands is tripartite: diplomacy, development assistance, and security cooperation.
(i) Diplomatic Outreach
China has been deepening diplomatic ties with Pacific Island nations by hosting summits at the highest level, awarding scholarships, establishing embassies in states such as Solomon Islands and Kiribati and more. For instance, in 2019, China and the Solomon Islands formally established diplomatic relations, meanwhile Kiribati re-established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic. And most recently, in 2025, the Third China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers’ Meeting took place in Xiamen.
Some of these states have even shifted diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to Beijing, a highly symbolic win for China in the region. For instance, Solomon Islands and Kiribati, in 2019, severed relations with Taiwan and signed formalized relations with China, indicating a shift in allegiance. In 2019, both, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati shifted diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China largely because China promised substantial economic benefits such as development funds, infrastructure projects, and even aircraft as well as broader access to markets and strategic investment opportunities, which far surpassed what Taiwan could offer
(ii) Economic Engagement
China has funded several development and infrastructure projects in the Pacific. Roads, bridges, government buildings, ports, and even sports stadiums have been constructed with the help of China. While the projects do indeed exist, they come with strings attached to debt burden, Chinese company favoritism, or interference in local policy.
This is often referred to as “debt-trap diplomacy,” where poor countries are saddled with loans that they cannot pay back, providing Beijing with some degree of leverage (Kaleji, 2024). A 2019 analysis published by The Strategist stated that Tonga alone has over 25% of its GDP as Chinese debt as of year 2024. While the term “debt-trap” is controversial, issues of sovereignty and dependence are real.
(iii) Security Cooperation
The most contentious issue with China’s Pacific outreach is its increasing security presence in the region. In 2022, China and the Solomon Islands signed a security pact that unsettled the West owing to the fact that Beijing was seeking to build a military base there. Even though the two governments outrightly dismissed such an idea, leaked diplomatic cables indicated Chinese naval deployments were among possible future cooperation for instance a leaked draft security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands proposed that China could deploy military and police personnel to the country.
The decision surprised the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand, who believed that China was attempting to create a chain of bases to enhance its military presence in the Pacific (Edel & Paik, 2025). Australia accelerated aid and diplomatic visits to Pacific countries hastily, and the U.S. reopened embassies and established new regional programs.
Future Implications: Shifting Power and Fragile Stability
(i) Great Power Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific
China’s moves are part of a broader rivalry with the United States for domination of the Indo-Pacific. With bases in the Pacific, China can counterbalance U.S. dominance in the seas, defend trade lanes, and keep a watchful eye on American possessions such as Guam and Hawaii (The Asian American Education Project, n.d.). This raises the possibility of militarization and diplomatic bipolarization of the region.
(ii) Strained Sovereignty and Political Pressure
Pacific Island governments run the risk of being drawn into a game of geopolitical tug-of-war. With assistance from both sides, local leaders may be coerced into taking decisions without full consent. Some will receive Chinese investment out of sheer desperation, whereas others may become entangled in domestic political backlash or even instability due to increased foreign influence.
Second, Chinese aid is not transparent and accountable, and thus there are concerns of corruption by Pacific Island Governments & Civil Society (Brant, 2014). Social unrest may increase if local citizens feel that they are exploited or marginalized.
Climate Change and Development Goals under Threat
Pacific nations are threatened with extinction by global warming, as sea level rises (Lee, 2022). The governments had expected the West to assist them with climate change, but the lack of action has infuriated island leaders. China, on the other hand, is presenting itself as an offer to help with development of roads, airports, and disaster relief, thereby winning local trust.
But Chinese endeavors have a tendency to prioritize strategic interests over sustainability, and their environmental footprint is not necessarily (Ladislaw & Carey, 2019). If allowed to flourish unencumbered, it could exacerbate the climate vulnerabilities of the islands.
Way Forward: A Balanced and Respectful Dialogue
Foreign countries, particularly, Australia, the U.S., and New Zealand need to rethink their engagement in the Pacific. It is not merely about providing aid that, but also understanding the voice of their people, respecting their decisions, and establishing long-term partnership based on mutual respect. This entails investing in health, education, climate resilience, and infrastructure that is sensitive to the needs of the people and not just responding to China. Support for Transparent governments and international organizations have to assist the Pacific Islands in having stronger governance institutions. By promoting civic engagement, accountability, and openness, foreign influences can assist these countries in escaping debt dependence or corruption traps. Multilateral development banks also have the ability to provide alternative financing to avoid reliance on Chinese loans.
Additionally, through regional cooperation such nations will be better positioned in negotiations. Encouraging peaceful competition instead of treating the Pacific as a theatre for the exertion of influence, these foreign powers should pursue peaceful coexistence and equitable competition. Initiatives such as the U.S.-initiated Partners in the Blue Pacific or Australia’s Pacific Step-up should be aimed at development outcomes and not geopolitics play. This can be through projects undertaken through collective Western and Chinese financing or regionally accepted security arrangements under which there is a guarantee of transparency and impartiality.
While China’s growing role in the Pacific is worrying, the U.S. and its allies are limited by the islands’ right to make their own decisions and by regional agreements like the Pacific Islands Forum and Boe Declaration (2018), which focus on climate change, sustainable use of resources, and local control of security. Plans like the Blue Pacific Continent, COFA, and Australia’s “Pacific Step-Up” give help but still respect independence. To protect this independence, Pacific nations need more funding for development, clean energy, and stronger control of their seas, with support from global groups like the UN and WTO to make sure outside powers follow island-led priorities.
Conclusion
China’s increased activity across the Pacific Islands is reflective of a larger realignment of power globally. It is a chance, as well as a threat, for the island nations. While Chinese investment brings with it necessary infrastructure and aid, it also disrupts traditional power dynamics and raises questions of sovereignty, debt, and militarization of the region. The future of the Pacific will hang in the balance of how these countries manage the external alignments, articulate their independence, and chart the turbulent seas of great power rivalry. China and its competitors need to ensure that what they do is feasible to make peace, sustainability, and authentic development possible and not render the Pacific a geopolitical battleground.
References
China Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2022). Foreign Minister Wang Yi Attends and Addresses the First China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/zyxw/202505/t20250521_11629785.html
Graue, C. (2022, April 20). Why the Solomon Islands’ China deal is triggering alarm. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-60870238
Reporter, G. S. (2022, June 6). Five things we learned about China’s ambitions for the Pacific from the leaked deal. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/five-things-we-learned-about-chinas-ambitions-for-the-pacific-from-the-leaked-deal
Jkg. (2022, December 2). China-Solomon Islands Security Agreement and competition for influence in Oceania – Georgetown Journal of International Affairs. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs. https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2022/12/02/china-solomon-islands-security-agreement-and-competition-for-influence-in-oceania/
Zhang, D. (2023, August 29). Perceptions of China’s influence in the Pacific: Chinese and Pacific perspectives – Australian Institute of International Affairs. Australian Institute of International Affairs. https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/perceptions-of-chinas-influence-in-the-pacific-chinese-and-pacific-perspectives/
Joint Statement of the third China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. (n.d.). https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202505/t20250528_11635595.html
Lee, C. (2022, November 27). Experts See Environmental Risk from China’s Small Island BRI Efforts. Voice of America. https://www.voanews.com/a/experts-see-environmental-risk-from-china-s-small-island-bri-efforts-/6851936.html
Pacific Islanders and US Colonization, Micronesia Melanesia Polynesia, Native Hawaiian Pacific Islander, US territories in the Pacific Islands | lesson plan curriculum The Asian American Education Project. (n.d.). https://asianamericanedu.org/pacific-islanders-us-colonization.html
Chinese assistance in the Pacific: agency, effectiveness and the role of Pacific Island governments. (n.d.). Lowy Institute. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/chinese-assistance-pacific-agency-effectiveness-role-pacific-island-governments
Ladislaw, S., & Carey, L. (2025). Chinese multilateralism and the promise of a green belt and road. https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinese-multilateralism-and-promise-green-belt-and-road
China’s Debt-Trap diplomacy in Central Asia. (n.d.). https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13823-chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy-in-central-asia.html Edel, C., & Paik, K. (2025, April 8). China’s power play across the Pacific. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-power-play-across-pacific
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Jindal Centre for the Global South or its members.
Global South Studies Series 